Population Prophecy

The worse people have the most children.  This is inevitable as those who lack responsibility in their personal and social lives shall also lack responsibility when it comes to parenting and preventing pregnancy.  This is a problem that all societies must face and one that all must deal with in order to survive.  Legislation, such as public funding for easy access to contraception counseling and access to free abortion and sterilization procedures performed by qualified physicians, is necessary in order to prevent bankruptcy of any country's social welfare services system. Without such legislation, over time, the impractical, improvident and imprudent will become an ever larger growing portion of the populace, as has happened in Britain and in the United States. Those societies that don't take the necessary steps to reduce the number of offspring of the indigent portion of their populations shall fail and will inevitably, eventually, cease to exist. This has already taken place in nations such as Britain and United States: Their day in the sun is done. 

A Matter of Leadership

There is no such thing as a just war, although there can be necessary wars. Wars are waste, and waste can never be justified. The cause of war is a false sense of patriotism and mistaken loyalty to some leader who becomes the personification of the state. Such loyalty is unjustified, because a good leader attempts always to avoid war, and patriotism deals with a state's preservation and never with destruction of another state. The fact that any state finds itself involved in a conflict means the leaders of that state have failed in their duty to preserve the welfare of the citizenry and those foolish leaders, who've engaged the state in war, ought to be replaced with wiser ones.

Be your own Pundit

Ignorance shouts while wisdom whispers. There is no better verification of this ancient saying than listening to and reading the so-called "pundits" on economics and investing. The majority have no idea what they are talking about, but they'll be shouting their lack of knowledge loudly. It's important to know how and why markets work and to have had experience in their working before investing a single dollar on anything or in anything. If you can't read financial statements and don't know how and why financial statements are generated, you have no business being in the market. It's not for you. Accounting is the language of business, just as mathematics is the language of science. If you are unfamiliar with the language used, you can't understand what is being said or what is happening or why it's happening (the why is just as important as the how). So, the best advice that can be given is this: If you would invest (and you should if you have the disposable income), learn the language of business first: study accountancy. Then, once that is done, learn how to analyze statements. If you would be prosperous, learn to be an auditor of life.

Solutions for Stupidity

One of the problems, and it really is a problem, is the costly effort expended by governments to solve problems that have previously been solved, because some solution isn't acceptable to their political elite. A good example of this waste is in energy dispersion and transportation. Abundant energy and efficient transportation services are necessary for the existence of any civilization. Of course, there are those who state that civilization isn't necessary; but the people who've stated this have never been to those places where civilization doesn't exist, and I can assure you that unfortunately many such places still do exist today and there are many more of them every day. Natural gas is an abundant resource, and there are more than enough natural gas fields available to meet global energy needs for the next two hundred years or so (after that, fusion energy shall be readily available). Natural gas is also cheap and the distribution infrastructure for natural gas already exists and it is continually growing larger. Natural gas is easily converted into hydrogen for fuel cells, and the combination of fuel cells plus lithium-ion electric batteries has already been tested (Toyota Highlander FCHV), and it works quite well; so, that transportation problem has been solved. Thermal solar plants, those "power-towers," can be sited at natural gas conversion and distribution plants; so the energy problem has also been solved. Of course, more and greater efficiencies could be achieved, and soon shall be, from these existing technologies: Of natural gas conversion, hydrogen fuel cells, solar thermal, and of lithium-ion batteries (Nissan Leaf). Energy and transportation solutions are known; are now available and they should be implemented now!

Bankruptcy and the Military

When the only firm that's hiring happens to be the Army, the country is in big trouble. That is exactly what is happening in America today. Why? Even since the second world war, the USA has continuously invaded and interfered militarily in the domestic affairs of foreign countries in the mistaken belief that it has some exceptional providential right to do so. It does not. The US spends over a half trillion every year on its military, a sum that is more than the total combined defense spending of every other nation; every year US does this and wonders why it's bankrupt!

Beware the Zombies!

Beware the Zombies! Hopefully, all these posts (and there's a hundred of them) have helped someone somewhere at sometime. None of these posts are there for you to agree with them. They are all there to make you think about certain topics. You should be forming your own opinions and arriving at your own solutions. These posts are intended as spurs to thought. Remember: Without your own, independently wrought, thought-out opinions; you'll be just another zombie...so don't be one. Make your own.

The Future and Our Place in IT

As has often been pointed out, most people manage to waste their lives. Since their life is really all they can truly own, life's lost for them. They have stole it from themselves. Far better to spend one's life doing something one loves; as, at least in this way, even if one remains permanently impoverished, one can be happy and have a real chance to do something that's well worthwhile. So, what do we Druids do in today's world, where the clan system is no longer a factor in deciding one's position in life? One can no longer be counselor for the clan. Well, one can. But one has to create the clan one counsels, which means one has to identify those people with whom one shares common interests and then be of some service in some way to this elite group. Well, how to do this then? What common interests do we share with others? Well, there is one: Through our creativity obviously. Creative people shall always identify with other creative people. We Druids, by definition, are creative people. We'll identify with other creative people (whether they'll be fellow Druids or not). This then shall be our new mission: To serve as counselors for the creative for they now constitute our clan.

Dismissing false Experts

One of the problems one has in life is dealing with people who know nothing whatsoever about the subject they are most aggressive in discussing; in particular, those people who supposedly occupy positions of authority and have academic credentials in their fields of alleged expertise. The others one can safely ignore, but "experts" usually have to be responded to in some polite manner. People who have true knowledge have wide knowledge. This is because they are all naturally curious, and also have an ability to associate many diverse ideas and facts into a coherent structure. As we say, in martial arts terminology: they have "strong foundation" (in the arts, the saying is that a boxer's legs go first, meaning that they are no longer able to step, slip and slide, side to side, quickly in the ring); so, for any scholar, the same truth shall apply---knowledge is based, literally, on deep, strong roots that have multiple sources of nourishment. The trick then in dealing with these false, faux scholars is to divert them onto another detour to see if their knowledge is broadly based: talk to a carpenter about plumbing and a writer about mathematics, or a physicist about biology. If they lack knowledge in another field somewhat related to their own field; they shall then lack a deep knowledge in their own field. It's an easy and non-threatening way to deal with "experts." One then can safely dismiss their false opinion.

Morphology and State Survivability

Luckily the survival of the state has nothing whatsoever to do with the survival of the person; or else, we would all be in big trouble. The United States has twenty-five years left to exist. What one sees in the state of California now (issuance of IOU warrants as the state lacks currency to pay its debts) will be happening to US nation in a quarter century. It means failure of America. Many commentators have spoken on this; mainly to the point that once the fiscal deficit exceeds the GDP of any state, the interest payments on the debt of the state cannot be satisfied, even if all the income in the state were to be taxed at an exorbitant hundred percent rate. This is true because taxes are always a burden upon commerce so when one's in a global economy, successful companies simply move all of their operations over to any nation that has a lower tax burden. It is certainly a good reason for failure. However, although it's certainly accurate; this is not at all the real reason for America's coming failure. The reason is far more obvious, though most wish to hide it. The real reason is this: in USA, the worse people have the most offspring, and it's as simple as that. Look around you. Instead of the tall, the thin, the strong, having offspring; who now is having children? Yes, it's the short, the squat, the fat; and their children resemble their parents. These children are the next US generation and their offspring will be predominant in America in the next quarter century. The USA won't be able to survive because of its citizens.

Zombie Nation

One of the problems that one constantly encounters is false knowledge and the claimants to false knowledge. Knowing is very important just in itself. If one doesn't know, it's very easy to be fooled and one then is forever at the mercy of fools. That's never a good place to be. Many people lack knowledge of anything that is outside of the small expertise they might have in the field in which they are making their immediate living. Some even lack that. A lot lack that. Some people have wide knowledge in many fields. If one isn't curious, one is a zombie. Beware of zombies. America is a zombie nation. Almost any problem can be solved if one has sufficient knowledge of all the facts, but many facts that are necessary to the solution are not the obvious ones. They usually aren't. That's why it is so necessary to have a very wide range of expertise and knowledge. All knowledge, no matter how arcane, is going to be useful; as some fact, that's seemingly irrelevant, can be brought in from far afield in order to solve some problem. That's what facts are for: to solve problems. Don't be a zombie. Learn.

State Survivability vs. Personal Survival

One of the questions that everyone must face eventually is whether or not personal survivability is dependent upon a state's survivability. It's not. If one looks at any old map of the world, one can see the nations of the world have changed dramatically over the last century, yet people who inhabited and were citizens of those long-gone, vanished nations have survived and thrived. It's in any state's interest to convince the habitants of the state that their survival depends upon the state surviving. We know that it doesn't nor shall it ever. All states are controlled by plutocratic oligarchies and those oligarchies wish to keep their affluence and position (which maintains their affluence). This is understandable. But if one is not a member of the state's oligarchy (and most can't be, that is why it's an oligarchy); the fate of any state has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the fate of an individual: they're completely separate and not dependent upon the other.

Predictions and Markets

Investing deals with prediction and some people are far better predictors than are others. They are able to see patterns and trends before others do. These people are very valuable to any culture; and in fact, they are the most valuable people in the culture, as the culture depends upon them for its survival. The problem is that they are very rarely listened to at the time that they make the prediction. Why is that? Because predictions are opinions and everyone values his or her opinion above the opinions of all others and if an opinion is contradictory to a belief, especially if that belief is so ingrained that it has never been challenged before, the prediction, no matter how perceptive, will be ridiculed. In practical matters, it is fairly easy, for instance, to predict trends in stocks and securities in financial markets; but because the predictions won't be listened to, it's best to keep the prediction to oneself and to act upon it immediately by oneself; rather than in trying to make the prediction public where it would not be listened to anyway.

Evolution and Devolution

Evolution isn't moral in the sense that it's negative or positive. Human evolution does reflect cultural values as the more attractive mates are those which more closely align themselves with a culture's ideal, but the culture itself may be one another culture deems immoral. However, all cultures idealize intelligence, psychic abilities and longevity. The reason that they do is because these three are absolutely necessary for the survival of the culture, any culture. Some cultures might prize one aspect more than the others, but all three are prized. In contrast to this is devolution, where other values might be prized...values regarding reproductive abilities and aggressiveness. Sexually aggressive and physically aggressive persons do have a distinct selective advantage in some societies because their rate of reproduction is much higher; they'll have more offspring. So these are two tendencies that travel in opposite directions---one where aggressiveness is more prized and one where intelligence is more prized. And, of course, one could be both aggressive and intelligent, and that's a third direction evolution could take and now does.

Physical Immortality

Psychic immortality is proven by our experience: we've all met ghosts whether we wanted to or not and most of them have proven to be our other selves; but what about physical immortality?
Well, it's possible; but not probable. IPS are induced pluripotent stem cells taken from the skin of a patient, treated with genes and proteins to reprogram them into other kinds of cells (this makes them pluripotent), and injected back into the patient. At most, humans live to 115, but any at that age are both decrepit and incoherent---both. It is possible, with IPS treatments, for people to regenerate dying organs and tissues, as this has already been done successfully. The problem is the expense. IPS injections are prohibitively expensive and only for the very rich. However, the cost of the injections will decrease. For instance, in New York State, $600 million is being spent by New York State Stem Cell Foundation mainly through SUNY for IPS research. What this research means is that, eventually, immortality may be possible, if not probable; but longevity will be for the rich at the beginning and not for everyone. As IPS research grows, and its advantage is that injections are not rejected by the patient's immune system, availability of IPS will grow and people will be living much longer lives and perhaps, even lives of immortality.

Diplomacy and Reality

One of the problems with a country like North Korea is that it has been engaged in a civil war with South Korea for fifty years (an armistace was signed in 1953), and technically both these nations are still at war. South Korea is clearly capable of defeating North Korea anytime that it so wants and to end the war. But it does not wish to do so; because, by so doing, it would end a potential threat to Japan and South Korea regards Japan as an enemy because of its occupation. Much as the problems in the Middle East should stay solely amongst the nations in the Middle East, problems on the Korean Peninsula are problems for the nations situated on that peninsula.

Value Addded Tax (VAT)

One proposed solution to America's fiscal deficit problems (they're many---there may be failure of imagination---but never of answers) is imposition of thirty-percent value added consumption tax (VAT), with a repeal of all other federal taxes---income, employment and estate. How VAT works (most countries already have VAT taxes) is: a flat excise tax is imposed at each stage of production, rather than at the final retail distribution, as is done with sales tax. Because VAT is consumption tax, rather than an income tax, it keeps inflation low and discourages credit debt accumulation. Some items, such as housing, medical care, education and groceries, are normally excluded from VAT taxation. It's also a simple tax to administer and to audit, because of its flat rates of taxation. VAT taxation encourages greater efficiencies in production of goods and from a conservative viewpoint, VAT is a far better tax structure, provided the income tax structure and employment tax structure are repealed: the worse things any state may wish to penalize within its economy are the production of income and greater employment, which the imposition of both income and employment taxes certainly does. If a state must tax, a VAT is the better way to go.

Talent and Creativity

Almost everyone has talents (some don't because of brain damage and that some is increasing because of methamphetamine), but very few are actually creative. Most talented people are good critics but bad creators. Why this is so is because of evolutionary function. Criticism is the necessary adjunct to conservatism and conservatism is absolutely necessary for the continuance and preservation of culture. Creators don't build museums, but critics do so; because critics are concerned with preservation of past. No creative person is concerned with preserving anything; because creators, by their natures, rebel and they rebel against everything, particularly the past (including their personal pasts---that's why they constantly reinvent their own pasts). Critical and creative functions are both necessary, but they'll never congregate together. The creative despise critics, although they recognize their cultural function in society. Opportunities for the creative are thwarted often by critics and creative people know this, and this is why they'll try their best to avoid the critics. Judgments of others and ourselves only deters the production of new work. If one wishes to be creative, don't criticise; and in particular, don't criticize yourself. Find what you love to do and do it. Find your happiness in your own work and your own effort.

The Secular and the Sacred

Becoming involved in any conflict between Allah and Jehovah is not a wise policy. There is much pressure being exerted for the western democracies to get involved in the domestic politics of Middle Eastern countries, in particular the conflict between Iran and Israel. Both nations have evolved from their secular origins into semi-theocratic states because the more orthodox portions of their populations have reproduced at much higher rates than the more liberal portions and have greater say in the politics of their respective countries. The religious systems of both states stem from a single common source in Zoroastrianism, which pits humanity as being in eternal enmity between those forces aligned with the light and the dark. This is nonsense of course, but it worked for thousands of years to bring unity to tribes within their respective cultures and it eventually evolved into Islam and Judaism. What one has in Middle East culture are class conflicts, that are essentially secular in nature, under the guise of sacred wars. A ridiculous situation to be sure, but it's one that involves the whole world because of its dependence on petrol sources. Best to simply stay out and avoid such conflicts, as there can never be a winner in a war over religion. Particularly important, is for the United States and Great Britain not to allow their armed forces to be used as mercenaries to serve the interests of nations in the Middle East; as they have already done in Iraq and Afghanistan, to the economic ruin of western democracies.

National Socialism

When any government owns major manufacturing and financial services industries, through its control of companies' common stock, national socialism is introduced into the economy. Whether or not socialism works depends upon the abilities of those in charge. If those in charge were the very same ones who previously failed at regulating and in ensuring accounting accuracy in those industries, it should not be beyond our predictive abilities to assume any failed regulator would also have to be a failed manager. It is unlikely that any company run by any government could prosper or would even survive. Simply because of known government ownership, the shares of stock in controlled companies would have to drop in value, as the public will no longer have any incentive to invest in the government controlled entities. In short, national socialism can't work.

Selling the USA

The United States has had to issue three and a quarter trillion in additional treasury obligations in the current fiscal year and will be issuing the same amount of new debt in the next fiscal year. Naturally, that debt pays interest, or no one would be buying it. Russia, Brazil and China have notified the Treasury that they are now diversifying, which is a polite way of stating they don't wish to purchase many more debt obligations of the United States. US domestic purchasers, the citizens of the United States, are unable to purchase debt as they are leveraged out. Americans already owe more than one third of what they can make: the ratio of personal debt to personal disposable income for an average American is one-hundred-and-thirty-three percent of income. The average American is broke; so he or she shall not be purchasing any US government bonds. A government has two ways to secure the income necessary to continue its day-to-day duties: it can sell its debt and it can collect taxes. Of course, in order to collect tax, there must exist some income from which collection can come and there isn't. If the main buyers of government debt decide not to buy any more (Russia, Brazil and China); that source of income is also lost. There is always a third way to secure income of course: Sale of public assets, like land and rights that can be readily disposed. This appears to be the only viable option remaining to the government.